EUDA webinar: Did the illicit fentanyl trade experience a supply shock?
Objective: This webinar aims to discuss recent findings investigating the unexpected decline in fentanyl overdose deaths in North America in the period 2023–2024. It will explore the potential role of a major disruption in the illicit fentanyl trade (possibly linked to Chinese government actions) and the implications for drug policy and public health strategies.
Background: Over the past 15 years, fatal overdoses from synthetic opioids (mainly fentanyl) in North America rose dramatically, peaking at around 76 000 annual deaths in the United States in 2023. Unexpectedly, from mid-2023 into 2024, these overdose deaths declined by over one-third. A recent study synthesises data from US and Canadian government sources and discussions on social media (Reddit) to examine this decline (1).
Key indicators, such as fentanyl purity, number of drug seizures and online mentions of a ‘fentanyl drought’, all point to a significant disruption in the illicit fentanyl supply around mid to late 2023. Notably, the average purity of seized fentanyl powders in the US roughly halved between its March 2023 peak and late 2024, and overdose deaths fell in parallel. Mentions of fentanyl ‘shortage’ or ‘drought’ surged on drug-related Reddit fora during the same period, suggesting that users perceived reduced availability. Similar trends were observed in Canada’s opioid overdose data, despite differences in supply chains. This hinted at a broad North American impact, likely to be linked to reduced availability of fentanyl precursors from China.
The webinar will explore how actions in China against chemical precursor exports and other supply-side interventions may have contributed to these trends. It will also discuss the broader policy significance of supply-side drug control measures, their potential to rapidly affect public health outcomes, and the need for preparedness and international cooperation to sustain progress against opioid overdose crises.
In conversation with:
- Professor Peter Reuter, Distinguished University Professor, Professor at the School of Public Policy and Department of Criminology, University of Maryland (USA).
- Kasey Vangelov, PhD researcher at the School of Public Policy, University of Maryland (USA).
Chairperson: Teodora Groshkova, Principal Scientific Analyst – Drug Supply Indicators, EUDA.
Opening remarks: TBD.
Support team: Marica Ferri, Anna Ferrara, Marco Costa, Silke Vitt (EUDA).
Format: Opening remarks, speaker presentations, audience Q&A and closing remarks.
Length: 1 hour.
Participants: Open to all registered attendees (a joining link will be provided upon registration).
Webinar etiquette: We welcome participants using the chat during the webinar but kindly ask them to refrain from using it for airing grievances, promoting events/commercial initiatives or misusing contact details. Please engage with courtesy and respect. Violation of these guidelines may result in exclusion from the chat by the administrator. Thank you for your cooperation in making this webinar a positive and focused learning experience for all.
Date: 24 March 2026, 14:30–15:30 Lisbon time (WET) — 15:0–16:30 (CET).
Platform: Zoom.
(1) Vangelov, K., Humphreys, K., Caulkins, J.P., Pollack, H., Pardo, B. and Reuter, P. (2026) ‘Did the illicit fentanyl trade experience a supply shock?’, Science, 391(6781), pp. 134–136. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aea6130